Ukraine’s attack exposes Russia’s limited anti-drone capabilities

Ukraine attacks military base near rich Moscow suburb Rublyovka

According to Ukrainian military the drone attack was targeting a military base in Moscow, and while they did not say it directly it has been hinted these drones flew undetected from the border all the way to hit a very particular target near Moscow.

The Ukrainians were targeting military base less than 1 mile from a wealthy Russian suburb called Rublyovka. Many successful Russian and prominent supporters of the war in Ukraine reside in this suburb as it is comparatively much nicer than the rest of Moscow residential areas. This attack was intended to intimidate the leadership of Russia and the consequences of the war to Russia more undeniable.

The drones did not appear to hit their target but they made a clear point

The majority of the suspected 8 – 10 drones (not a reliable source yet for exact number) did not hit their military with the possible exception of 1 that may have caused an alcohol facility explosion on the base. According to Ukrainian military this is because Moscow has protection of GPS and other anti air jamming systems. The drones for the most part did not appear to be shot down by rather hit the ground around the target exploding.

The Russian military produced no footage of counter measures and there were dozens of videos uploaded by Russian civilians showing the impacts from drones on the surrounding areas. The damage appeared to be mostly confined to the local residential areas where Russian deflected them to; its likely that these drones could have carried much larger explosives than they did. This may have been a test run on Ukraine’s part to see Russia’s air response and demonstrate to elite Russians that they are not out of reach.

What kind of drones were used? How did they hit Moscow?

Footage uploaded after the attack made it difficult to identify all the Ukrainian drones, but according the Washington Post at least some of them were homegrown UJ-22 Airborne drones. The UJ-22 can carry a 20 kg payload which makes it suitable for large bombs or other advanced logistics payloads.

According to Military Today “The UJ-22 drone can be used to test hostile air defenses before launching at the same area more capable and more expensive drones or missiles. The UJ-22 can be also used for search and rescue operations.”. The drone can fly up to 500 Km on preprogrammed directions and is controllable within 100 Km. This is why Ukraine was able to hit Moscow – they used a small drone and preprogrammed coordinates. It is still very interesting because no Russian anti-air picked it up for hundreds of Km – not until they were in Moscow were the drones spotted.

New stage in the war with many fearing escalation

Ukraine media began putting out that this attack was in response to the overnight bombing Russian had conducted overnight against Kyiv. This suggests that Ukraine is entering a new posture in the war where they feel they can counter-attack against Russian civilian population in proportionate response. However, many are fearing that this return fire against Russia will be used as an excuse to use nuclear weapons. Indeed, immediately after the attack at least one member of the Russian parliament called for the use of nuclear weapons.

While this may be a risky move for Ukraine, they have clearly calculated out several years of this war and are planning for the long haul against Russia.